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Category Archive: World politics
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Is China like Dubai?
Wow. Must read editorial by Edward Chancellor on the parallels between China and Dubai. Here is the best part:
Dubai’s ambitions weren’t merely domestic. Dubai World and its subsidiaries, with their assumed government backing, went on a debt-fuelled global buying binge. Dubai’s economy expanded rapidly in the boom. But much of this growth came from construction projects of dubious economic merit. When the music stopped, property prices crashed. Knight Frank estimates the vacancy rate for Dubai office buildings is 40 per cent. Yet planned new construction is set to double the city’s office space over the next couple of years.
There is a country on the other side of Asia, whose currency is also pegged to the dollar. Although its economy is expanding rapidly, short-term interest rates are below 2 per cent and the money supply has grown by 30 per cent over the past year.
This country is experiencing a real estate boom. Reports tell of a newly constructed ghost city with dwellings for a million people. Speculators are reportedly snapping up luxury developments, which remain unoccupied long after completion. Despite a 20 per cent vacancy rate in the capital city, new skyscrapers are being planned.
This country’s economy is also state-directed. Its rulers are looking for 8 per cent annual GDP growth as they seek to diversify their economy away from exports. State-owned enterprises are borrowing and investing to meet this target. Construction and infrastructure are taking an ever greater share of GDP, even though many projects are likely to prove unremunerative. A mentality of “build and they will come” prevails.
In short, economic conditions in China have much in common with those that prevailed until recently in Dubai. The population of China is roughly a thousand times greater than the tiny emirate’s. For this reason alone, the lessons from Dubai should be heeded.
And here is the link (hat tip Paul Kedrosky): China and Dubai
Climate Conference is a Joke
‘Ms Jorgensen reckons that between her and her rivals the total number of limos in Copenhagen next week has already broken the 1,200 barrier. The French alone rang up on Thursday and ordered another 42. “We haven’t got enough limos in the country to fulfil the demand,” she says. “We’re having to drive them in hundreds of miles from Germany and Sweden.”
And the total number of electric cars or hybrids among that number? “Five,” says Ms Jorgensen. “The government has some alternative fuel cars but the rest will be petrol or diesel. We don’t have any hybrids in Denmark, unfortunately, due to the extreme taxes on those cars. It makes no sense at all, but it’s very Danish.”‘
No more comment is necessary. Here is the link: Climate Conference and Carbon Dioxide
The Demographic Implications of China’s One Child Policy
“But social experiments always have unintended consequences. In the case of China’s One Child Policy, these consequences are now becoming evident, and are no less breathtaking in scale than the dreams entertained by the coercive visionaries in Beijing who set this scheme in motion. Inexorably—and by now inescapably—a host of new and unfamiliar demographic problems have arisen, all of which will plague China’s next generation. These problems will compromise economic development, strain social harmony and place the traditional Chinese family structure under severe pressure; in fact, they could shake Chinese civilization to its very foundations.”
The above comes from a wonderfully thought provoking article on China in the Far Eastern Economic Review by Nicholas Eberstadt. The data and the implications to China are damning. First their workforce is going to age rapidly:
“According to the UNPD’s projections, China’s 65-plus age group currently numbers around 110 million. Over the coming generation, this group is set to rise to 280 million—growing at a pace of almost 3.8% per annum. By 2035, nearly one in five Chinese will be 65 or older, constituting a staggering 280 million senior citizens.”
And the amount of 15-29 year olds as a percentage of the population is plunging:
“In 1985, 15- to 29-year-olds accounted for 47% of China’s working age population. Today that proportion is down to about 34% of the workforce. By Census Bureau projections, 20 years from now it will have fallen to just barely 26% of China’s conventionally defined labor force.”
But even worse is that the China One Child Policy has caused the Chinese to abort daughters and try as hard as possible to only have boys. This is resulting is a surge of unmarried men as the number of men dramatically outnumber women:
“Today, roughly 5% of Chinese men in their late 30s have never married. By 2020, that fraction could exceed 15%, and may reach 25% by 2040. The situation will be more extreme in the countryside, since rural men are more likely to lose out to more affluent and educated urban suitors in the national marriage race. By these same calculations, in 2020 about 20% of China’s rural men between the ages of 35 to 44 will never have taken a bride, and the proportion rises above 30% by 2040.”
And the author asks this very scary question:
“How will Chinese government and society function in the face of this rising tide of unmarriageable young men, an able-bodied but very likely disaffected cadre drawn disproportionately from the countryside and the urban poor?”
Here is the link to this must read article and hat tip to Paul Kedrosky for finding it: Demographics of China’s One Child Policy
Terror in Mumbai
I just watched a haunting and disturbing documentary on the terrorist attacks in Mumbai from HBO that is a must watch for everyone. Terror in Mumbai is stunning because it not only shows you what happened and how it happened, but they play recorded cell phone conversations between the terrorists and their handlers in Pakistan.
My conclusions from watching this documentary is:
1)We must fight fanatical Islam with every ounce of strength and never give in. We must give them no quarter. That we cannot give up no matter how hard the fight. And that we cannot negotiate with fanatical Islam. Just listen to the cell phone conversations and you will begin to understand there is no negotiations here.
2)Any tourist in a foreign country is not safe and that you should avoid tourist attractions and hotels.
3)I pray that US police forces make this documentary a must watch, but I am fearful that we are just as clueless in dealing with these kinds of terrorists as the Indian forces, who were hapless.
4)We must actively boost intelligence, because the terrorists responsible here have promised that the Terror in Mumbai is “just the beginning of the film.”
Here is short trailer for the film:
I’m Not Going to Hire Anyone in the U.S.
A must read from Jeff Matthews on a major CEO warning that because of rising taxes and the pending health care legislation, he is not hiring anyone in the US.
Obama Responds to Cuban Blogger
While I just knocked the President for his shirking the moral high ground in China, I do commend him for responding to Cuban blogger, Yoani Sánchez. Ms. Sanchez has been highlighting how tough and bad life is in Cuba and she recently got beat up by Cuban security people for it. Good for the President, I would like to see more actions like this.
Human Rights, A Contrast
President Barack Obama recently went to China. The New York Times wrote an article on how he skirted Chinese sensibilities especially on human rights issues. Here is a snippet:
Whether by White House design or Chinese insistence, President Obama has steered clear of public meetings with Chinese liberals, free press advocates and even average Chinese during his first visit to China, showing a deference to the Chinese leadership’s aversions to such interactions that is unusual for a visiting American president.
And the link: Skirting Human Rights Article
Now this was very interesting because his opponent in last year’s election for President, Senator John McCain recently wrote a wonderful oped piece for the Financial Times that I was going to post, but forgot to. McCain wrote about human rights on the anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. The contrast between the two approaches on human rights could not be greater.
Most important is this: governments that embody human rights must champion them in their foreign policies – in all places, for all peoples and at all times. This is not just the right thing to do; it marks a higher form of realism. The character of regimes cannot be divorced from their behaviour. Governments that abuse and lie to their own people will likely do the same to us, or worse. Conversely, states that respect the rights of their citizens are more apt to play a peaceful role in the world. For reasons of basic self-interest, then, we must lead the long, patient effort to shape a world in which human rights are more secure for more people.
I highly recommend that everyone read the rest of his oped and the importance promoting human rights: John McCain on Human Rights
The Audacity of Extortion
Run to Jeff Matthews’ latest post on his blog about how awful the latest health care “reform” bill is and what the implications are. Here is a snippet:
Big Labor, naturally, never needed to negotiate with the White House, thanks to its pre-election payoffs to the Obama campaign. Despite the Senate bill’s plan to impose stiff taxes on “Cadillac” healthcare plans, union jobs will be exempt, which is fortunate for Big Labor, since its members frequently get “Cadillac” healthcare coverage.
All in all, the so-called “healthcare reform” plan looks to have been put together by and for special interests, without a single actual “reform” in the bill—tort reform being the most obvious missing ingredient, for the obvious reason that Big Ambulance Chasers were on board Team Obama from Day One.
Say what you like about healthcare reform—say that it is necessary, or it is unnecessary; say that it is just another government program bound to fail, or that it is an important government duty to pick up where the private sector has failed; say that it is a manufactured crisis or that it is the most serious political issue of our time—but you can’t say this bill is rational, well-considered, and logical.
It is political, it is pay-for-play, and it is not reform. Indeed, it is Chicago politics at the National level.
Here is the link: Jeff Matthews’ Blog on Health Care Reform
Jefferson
Enjoy this wonderful blog post from the New York Times by Maira Kalman about Thomas Jefferson. Really wonderful.
Washington’s Dilemma
“Imagine living in a prime area of California and watching your house decline by 40%, your houshold income knocked for an initial 30%, and the after-school programs and town services get cut. Now throw some fees and tax hikes on top that mess. For the coup de grace, imagine Calfornia voters sitting down each night to another wave of bailouts from Washington to financial corporations. Under those circumstances it seems quite unlikely Washington can say no, to the States.”
Read more: