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Category Archive: Inflation
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Paul Kedrosky wrote a blog post on his Infectious Greed site on the famous Simon/Ehrlich bet. Here is a snippet:
“After a decade of soaring commodity prices, plus related worries about resource scarcity, in 1980, Paul Ehrlich, a dour population ecologist, took up Julian Simon, a cornucopian economist, on a bet. Ehrlich (on paper) put equal mounts of money into five commodities (he selected chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten) whose prices would, he thought, be higher a decade later. Higher prices meant Ehrlich won; lower prices meant Simon won. The loser paid the winner the difference.
Ehrlich lost. A decade later, in 1990, all five commodities’ prices were lower than they were in 1980. Unhappy at the outcome, Ehrlich complained that he hadn’t really wanted to bet on commodities in the first place. He offered Simon a new and more complex series of decadal bets – including things like carbon dioxide, AIDS prevalence, area of viable farmland, and so on. Simon turned that bet down, comparing it to betting on a football field’s condition rather than on the game’s outcome. There never was a second Simon/Ehrlich bet, and Julian Simon died in 1998.”
I highly encourage you to read the whole thing as it is excellent. Here is the link:Kedrosky post on Simon/Ehrlich Bet
Some prescient thoughts from Andy Xie, courtesy of Barry Ritholz:
The bottom line is that, regardless of what central banks say and do, there will be a lot more money in the world after the crisis than before. After a debt bubble bursts, there are two effective ways to deleverage: (1) bankruptcy, or (2) inflation. Governments’ actions in the past year show that they cannot accept the first option. A mild form of stagflation is probably the best that one could hope for after a debt bubble.
Here is the link:Andy Xie’s thoughts
The Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve with help from Congress and the White House is making something very, very clear. They are going to devalue the American dollar through the printing of money, maintaining excessively low interest rates and out of control government spending.
If you are sitting on excess cash and that cash is in US Dollars, I feel like you have been warned. Those dollars will be worth substantially less in the future than they are now.
The Federal Reserve has communicated loud and clear they are going to keep interest rates low for an “extended time.” By keeping interest rates artificially low they are trying to recapitalize the financial system, but in the process are punishing savers who are earning little or no interest returns on their money. By keeping interest rates so low, they are actively trying to re-inflate the economy and prices, as they are worried about deflation. They are also keeping interest rates lower than other countries, thereby causing other countries currencies to increase in value.
More importantly, the Federal Reserve is doing something called “Quantitative Easing.” This made up term, means money printing. The Federal Reserve is quite simply buying the new debt that the Treasury Department is issuing. In fact, in the second quarter of this year, the Federal Reserve bought as much as half of all new Treasury Bonds issued. Think about that for a second. The government is buying half of the debt that the government issues. Does that sound absurd?
Treasury bond issuance is up 200% this year as the government posts close to a $1.5 trillion annual deficit. So, here is a dumb question. If the Federal Reserve is buying half of all new Treasury bonds, what happens when they stop? They claim they are going to stop in the first quarter of next year.
I don’t think the Federal Reserve can stop buying. The moment they stop buying interest rates will soar and bond prices will plunge, which will make our debt problem even worse. Money printing will go on for a while, and it will destroy the dollar. In a cynical way it also makes all of us feel better in the short run. We export more in the short run with a cheaper currency, our debts our lower and stocks, real estate and other real things start going up in price. And what better way to pay for all of the government debt, than to devalue that debt?
But in the long run, this is disastrous and it always ends badly. Even worse is to look at the White House and Congress. Beyond the Fed’s money printing, we have out of control spending by Congress. The projected US deficit for 2009 through 2019 is $9 Trillion. Who in the world is going to finance that debt? Where is that money going to come from?
A recent study by Peter Bernholz showed that the 12 largest hyperinflationary episodes in history all reached a tipping point when government expenditures were more than 40% of GDP. Well, the US government is over 40% this year and is projected at 40% next year.
The evidence of massive money printing is already popping up. Look at the price of precious metals, such as gold, which is soaring. Throughout history gold has been a monetary substitute and it becomes very valuable when governments become reckless with money printing and spending.
Better yet, look at the stock market or other commodities. I think we see the clearest evidence of the money the Fed is printing flowing into the markets. The stock market is quite expensive; the economy has been terrible, yet it continues to rise. I think that is why it is quite dangerous to short right now. The market may keep going up simply because there are more dollars floating around out there.
So what is my firm, Sabre Value, doing about the devaluation of the dollar?
We are not standing still while our government destroys the value of our dollars. First, we are fully invested. Stocks should do well, especially on a nominal basis as the dollar falls. Second, we have substantial positions in stocks based in Canada and Australia and benefit as those currencies rise. Third, we own a smattering of energy and resource companies that should do well as those commodities rise in dollar prices. Finally, we think that in an environment of soaring liquidity that our microcap stocks should do exceptionally well, as the liquidity flows down to them. That liquidity should have an outsized effect on smaller equities.
I highly recommend all investors search out alternatives from real estate to stocks, to solid currencies to even precious metals and protect your savings from the falling dollar.
The government reported on Wednesday that inflation was tame and lower than expected. The markets rallied on the news. But look into the numbers and one realizes that they are useful as Argentina’s or Venezuela’s inflation statistics.
Our esteemed government let us know that the price of gasoline fell 2% in April. While in the real world, gasoline prices actually rose 11%. Real world companies such as Fedex announced that fuel prices rose so much since the end of March that they reduced their earnings forecast.
We are witnessing a sad, sad act of absolute incompetence, mismanagement and lies at several levels of our government. Between our federal government’s reckless spending, our Federal Reserve’s destruction of the US dollar and Federal bailouts to everyone, and now outright lies from the hacks in charge of telling us what inflation is supposed to be, we are witnessing an outright theft of our way of life, our wealth and our financial standing in the world.
Don’t accept the nonsense coming from Washington, its all meant to distract you from what they are trying to do, which is spend, borrow and debase their way out of problems. What a shame.