Monthly Archives: March 2010

This is a must listen interview with Eric Sprott. Summary: He is super bearish still on the sustainability of the recovery and very bullish on gold and silver.

Eric Sprott Interview

A very, very strange thing happened to a company I follow called Contango Oil & Gas (AMEX: MCF). This is an extremely well-run company that generates tons of cash from natural gas in the Gulf of Mexico. You couldn’t ask for a more efficient and well run company. Consider that Contango has raised $60.5 million in its life and yet has already bought back $65 million, thus having a negative capital situation due to negative dilution. Quite an astonishing task for a commodity company. Further the company’s costs are the lowest around with their find, develop and acquire costs at a measly $1.36 per mcf (thousand cubic feet).

Mr. Ken Peak, the CEO, is a straight shooter, no-nonsense kind of CEO. In fact, I wish most CEOs were more like him. In their last press release for earnings, Mr. Peak said, “Concerning natural gas prices, the weather is cooperating on the demand side, but natural gas supply continues to hold steady. I wouldn’t be surprised by either $3.00 or $6.00 natural gas over the next year or so, but we have good prospects and are aggressively moving forward to drill.” Now how many CEOs would have the guts to say that $3 mcf natural gas prices could happen? Compare him to Chesapeake Energy’s rather repugnant CEO, Aubrey McClendon, who is a perma-bull who enriches himself at shareholder’s expense and has created no value for shareholders.

For disclosure purposes, I have invested in Contango in the past and wrote a research report on it at $38.30, exclaiming how cheap it was. I have since taken my profits with its move to over $50 per share and reallocated my money elsewhere. I still follow Contango, in case it sells off again, and to see what Mr. Peak is doing.

So imagine my surprise when I see Monday’s press release, which has been getting absolutely zero press or news. Contango, which has been strictly an oil & gas company, announced that they were making an investment of up to $3 million in looking in Alaska for gold!

Here is what Mr. Peak said:

“This investment does not signal, foreshadow or represent a change in our natural gas and oil exploration business model. We recognize that the risks and challenges inherent in gold exploration are quite different from our natural gas and oil exploration business and were attracted to invest in this project solely by what we perceive to be its reward/risk ratio, where a relatively small amount of initial exploration risk capital ($3 to $5 million is envisioned) could potentially lead to a more extensive gold exploration/development project. Our 2009 exploration program found relatively few samples of commercial grade gold ore – generally considered to be 0.5 grams per tonne or more – but we believe our results merit an expanded exploration program for the summer of 2010.”

Mr. Peak continued, “Our planned 2010 exploration program will be directed toward additional rock sampling, trenching and drilling core holes. Shareholders are reminded that at this early exploration stage our investment should be considered as nothing more than an ‘interesting speculation’ and that the odds of our ultimately being successful in finding gold in a volume sufficient to support a commercial gold mining operation are quite low. To put it in oil and gas parlance, this ‘play’ is the rankest of ‘wildcats’ that is currently only at the ‘idea’ stage and we are hoping, based on our 2010 work program, to learn if we can mature it to the ‘prospect’ stage in order to justify committing additional risk exploration capital. After we have taken our core, rock and pan samples, they will be assayed in an independent lab and then evaluated for prospectivity and commercial development potential. This process will likely take until December 2010.” Here is the link to the release: Contango Gold Investment

I think this is a big warning sign. Neither Contango, nor Mr. Peak, as far as I know have any experience looking for gold, and the company has made all of its money on natural gas. This investment raises a host of questions. What also does it say about the natural gas market, or Mr. Peak’s view of it, that he would be willing to spend $3 million on gold instead of drilling for natural gas? What does it say about the value of Contango’s stock, that Mr. Peak would rather search for gold and not buy his own stock back?

But then I pause my this line of questioning and remember that Mr. Peak has been an excellent allocator of capital and has an excellent eye for value. So, I turn the question around and ask, what does it say about Mr. Peak and Contango’s thoughts on gold and the future of gold?

I think this news deserves a lot more attention and analysis. I know Contango is much smaller, but could you imagine if Exxon announced they were looking for gold? Ken Peak and Contango have an excellent reputation and are held in high regard, their decision should be viewed no less important than if a major such as Exxon had announced it.