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Monthly Archives: April 2008
Memory Training
Interesting article from the NY Times about how you can improve your intelligence through memory training. The study cited in the article completely overturns the consensus that your intelligence cannot be changed.
Here is a snippet:
The results, published Monday in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, were striking. Although the control groups also made gains, presumably because they had practice with the fluid intelligence tests, improvement in the trained groups was substantially greater. Moreover, the longer they trained, the higher their scores were. All performers, from the weakest to the strongest, showed significant improvement.
“Intelligence has always been considered principally an immutable inherited trait,” said Susanne M. Jaeggi, a postdoctoral fellow in psychology at the University of Michigan and a co-author of the paper. “Our results show you can increase your intelligence with appropriate training.”
When Insiders Stop Selling
Below is a link to a fascinating piece of academic research on insider buying and selling. The most interesting part of this document is what they found when insiders stop selling. Many people conclude this to be a bullish sign and counter intuitively it may be the exact opposite. It may mean a crash is coming.
Why? Because insiders seem to try and time their selling 6-9 months advance so it looks like they aren’t trying to profit right before the bottom falls out and get sued or prosecuted by the SEC. So if you see insiders selling and then suddenly they stop. Watch out.
Excellent article on not giving up
The Wall Street Journal has an excellent article on the front page of the personal journal section called, “If at First You Don’t Succeed, You’re in Excellent Company.”
Here is an excerpt:
What makes some people rebound from defeats and go on to greatness while others throw in the towel? Psychologists call it “self-efficacy,” the unshakable belief some people have that they have what it takes to succeed. First described by Stanford University psychologist Albert Bandura in the 1970s, self-efficacy has become a key concept in educational circles, and is being applied to health care, management, sports and seemingly intractable social problems like AIDS in developing countries. It’s also a hallmark of the “positive psychology” movement now sweeping the mental-health field, which focuses on developing character strengths rather than alleviating pathologies.
Insider selling on the way down
Sell! Sell! That is the signal being given by the executives of AMR, the parent of American Airlines. Despite the stock being down 71% from its 52 week high, executives including three VPs, the Chairman of the Board and the CFO sold more than $3.3 million worth of stock.
I generally don’t pay too much attention to insider selling, because insiders sell for various reasons, but insider selling on a stock that has plunged is an ominous sign and most often means that worse news is coming.
To buy AMR right now is potentially buying a bankrupt company. Why on earth would I be buying from the top executives of AMR in such a tricky financial state.
Absurd price for Wrigley
Since no one else will say it, I will. Mars and Buffett are paying an absolutely absurd price for Wrigley. 28 times 2009 earnings? Are you kidding me? With commodity prices up so much and a weak consumer, I doubt they will even make those 2009 estimates. By the way, those estimates are quietly coming down.
Now, I know Berkshire is getting a discount to the absurd price that Mars is paying, but it can’t be that much of a discount.
While the deal clearly has strategic value to Mars, the price paid for this acquisition is ridiculous.
I admire Buffett as much as anyone, but people need to wake up and see that this is not such a good deal or good price.
The World to Come
I finished a book called, “The World to Come,” by Dara Horn about two weeks ago and the book still resonates deeply with me. It starts out when a young, antisocial, Jewish man goes into a Jewish museum and sees a Marc Chagall painting he is convinced hung in his parents’ house. He decides to steal it when no one is looking.
The book is so rich in its characters, so rich in meaning and in depth, I cannot do it justice. But suffice it to say it goes back into the painting’s history including visits to Russia and even visits to Vietnam. It discusses life and love, the creative process and what connects us.
The power of the book lies its constant thematic reminders of bridges, paintings, life and death, creativity and how we live with the unnoticed help from family members who came before us.
I cannot recommend this book enough. The book is worth reading for the last chapter alone, which is simply astounding in its creativity and beauty.
I plan to read this book again.
Switching to all Macs from PCs
I’m about to make a monumental change in my computing life. Or at least it feels that way. Since I was 7 or 8 years old, all I’ve known are PCs. My first computer from my Dad was an IBM PC with two floppy drives and no hard drive. I learned how to play video games. I remember using DOS and upgrading to Windows. I remember visiting bulletin boards when modems came around.
I have always been happy upgrading and getting the latest and greatest in PCs. But something happened in 2006 that changed things. I upgraded to a top of the line PC and there was no real discernible difference. And the PC came with all kinds of annoying additional demo software and it started being annoying. Then the transfer from my older PC to the newer one was just plain difficult.
Then came a renaissance in Apple and its addition of the Intel processor powered computers. People left and right talked about how much they loved their Apple computers. Further, I loved my Ipod, loved how easy it was to use.
And as my computer continued to disappoint me, I yearned for intuitive, simple, exciting and powerful from a computer. And a part of me yearned for the excitement I used to feel after getting a new computer.
Then came news of Vista, 3 minute boot up times, integration issues and general slowness. And I finally started thinking about changing last year. But it still seemed like a silly idea.
So, I decided to get a Mac as an experiment for the person I work with, to use her as a guinea pig. And the accolades that came from her and the excitement and the showing how great things like Time Machine are and how easy it is and intuitive. She showed me how she can link her computer with the one she has at home and little things like how well Ical works.
After having continued problems from weird Windows issues over old programs recently, I finally had had it. So, in a week, I am about to buy a Imac and possibly an Mac Air. And while I admit I’m nervous, I’m also really excited.
So, does this mean, I and everyone else should go out and buy Apple stock? Probably. Because if diehard PC people like me are switching, we may be on the cusp of a complete sea change. And judging from Apple’s and Microsoft’s earnings, the tide clearly appears to be changing and it may happen more dramatically then people expect.
Vengeance
There is a fascinating and thought provoking article by Jared Diamond in the latest New Yorker. Jared Diamond is the author of such books as Guns, Germs and Steel:The Fate of Human Societies.
This article is about vengeance and how state governments play in the role of removing vengeance from societies. It is absolutely fascinating how other cultures are so fundamentally different than ours, but the need for vengeance may be the same.
Rice Hoarding in the US
Who would have thought that in the bread basket of the world they are hoarding rice?
NY Sun article about rice hoarding
I got this link from Jeff Matthews, whose blog entries I always read.